Measured tafl game balances.

Tafl variant Game balance
Overall Full matches Strong players Strong players full matches Test tournament Average
Hnefatafl 9x9 +2.87    (60 / 12) +2.84    (48 / 10) +3.43    (31 / 6) +3.29    (30 / 6) +3.25    (42 / 7) +3.13
History Craft Hnefatafl 11x11 +1.61    (64 / 15) +1.74    (52 / 10) +1.40    (48 / 8) +1.51    (44 / 7) +1.55    (42 / 7) +1.56
Foteviken tablut 9x9 +1.62    (59 / 14) +1.56    (50 / 8) +1.59    (35 / 8) +1.40    (30 / 6) +1.50    (42 / 7) +1.53
Sea battle tafl 9x9 +1.49    (258 / 43) +1.52    (200 / 19) +1.49    (157 / 12) +1.64    (144 / 10) +1.21    (42 / 7) +1.46
Sea battle tafl 9x9 (Imperial Contest) +1.65    (57 / 15) +1.23    (48 / 8) +1.84    (27 / 6) +1.53    (24 / 5) +1.10    (42 / 7) +1.44
Tawlbwrdd Lewis diamond 11x11 +1.50    (60 / 9) +1.60    (52 / 9) +1.14    (15 / 4) +1.33    (14 / 4) +1.56    (56 / 8) +1.42
Copenhagen Hnefatafl 11x11 +1.37    (751 / 81) +1.31    (572 / 59) +1.31    (318 / 14) +1.34    (268 / 14) +1.30    (110 / 11) +1.33
Fetlar Hnefatafl 11x11 +1.26    (646 / 109) +1.35    (436 / 60) +1.33    (135 / 12) +1.12    (106 / 9) +1.47    (90 / 10) +1.30
Tawlbwrdd Lewis cross 11x11 +1.15    (43 / 10) +1.11    (40 / 8) +1.50    (15 / 5) +1.33    (14 / 5) +1.11    (42 / 7) +1.23
David Brown Hnefatafl 11x11 +1.21    (62 / 16) +1.27    (50 / 8) -1.40    (12 / 5) 1.00    (8 / 4) +1.16    (56 / 8) +1.21
Old Hnefatafl 11x11 +1.21    (1016 / 313) +1.33    (510 / 130) +1.15    (112 / 12) +1.19    (70 / 10) +1.13    (56 / 8) +1.20
Sea battle tafl cross 11x11 +1.15    (58 / 15) +1.17    (52 / 12) +1.00    (10 / 6) +1.67    (8 / 4) +1.00    (42 / 7) +1.18
Chess (roughly 52% - 56% white wins)
(balance +1.08 to +1.27)
+1.17
Berserk Hnefatafl 11x11 +1.33    (339 / 58) +1.14    (254 / 27) +1.11    (173 / 10) +1.04    (152 / 9) -1.14    (86 / 8) +1.09
Saami Tablut 9x9 +1.05    (193 / 23) -1.02    (178 / 16) -1.04    (57 / 9) -1.16    (54 / 8) -1.03    (146 / 13) -1.04
Old Hnefatafl 13x13 (Viking Siege) -1.00    (30 / 10) -1.00    (22 / 7) -inf.    (2 / 2) -inf.    (2 / 2) -1.29    (30 / 6) -1.09
Sea battle tafl diamond 11x11 -1.39    (43 / 9) -1.24    (38 / 7) -1.72    (30 / 7) -1.36    (26 / 6) -1.60    (42 / 7) -1.45
Tablut 11x11 (Skalk Hnefatafl edge 11x11) -1.08    (130 / 23) -1.40    (102 / 19) -2.14    (44 / 8) -2.45    (38 / 8) -1.69    (98 / 12) -1.68
Tawlbwrdd Bell 11x11 -1.41    (82 / 12) -1.60    (78 / 10) -2.45    >(38 / 7) -3.00    (36 / 7) -1.25    (72 / 9) -1.83
Skalk Hnefatafl 9x9 (ExpoMedia) -1.43    (158 / 40) -1.61    (116 / 14) -2.03    (88 / 8) -1.96    (80 / 7) -2.25    (56 / 8) -1.83
Tawlbwrdd diamond 11x11 -1.73    (67 / 14) -1.73    (56 / 10) -4.00    (15 / 7) -5.00    (12 / 5) -1.73    (72 / 9) -2.53
Skalk Hnefatafl 11x11 -1.49    (142 / 51) -2.29    (92 / 20) -4.22    (60 / 10) -4.33    (56 / 8) -3.83    (72 / 9) -2.99
Tawlbwrdd cross 11x11 -1.61    (94 / 17) -1.61    (86 / 13) -14.00    (15 / 6) -13.00    (14 / 5) -1.56    (90 / 10)> -3.74
Ashton Tablut 9x9 -5.06    (88 / 13) -4.79    (84 / 10) -6.13    (57 / 8) -6.00    (56 / 8) -5.09    (72 / 9) -5.39


The table data cells contain
game balance    ( number of games / number of players )

Games selection 1, "Overall".
All games in the games archive, excluding timeouted games and extremely short, abrupted games.

Games selection 2, "Full matches".
Subset of games selection 1, only including full pairs of games (player A white against player B black and player B white against player A black)

Games selection 3, "Strong players".
Subset of games selection 1, only including players rated above 1600.

Games selection 4, "Strong players full matches".
Subset of games selection 3, only including full pairs of games (player A white against player B black and player B white against player A black)


The tafl game balance is calculated as:
(number of most winning color's wins) divided by (number of least winning color's wins), the number positive if white is more winning, negative if black is more winning. Draws are counted as half wins.

Examples:
White wins 20 times and black wins 10 times. Balance = +20/10 = +2 (white has twice the chance of winning than black).
White wins 20 times and black wins 30 times. Balance = -30/20 = -1.5 (black has 1.5 times the chance of winning than white).
White wins 10 times and black wins 10 times, and 20 draws. Balance = 20/20 = 1 (perfect balance).


Updated 3.9.2014
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