I dont' know that I'm trying to measure anything. I am trying to identify themes amongst openings and the relative success or failure of those themes in practice. The approach is identical to that employed in books of chess openings, where lines and variations are catalogued by their win frequencies (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess_ope ... eory_table
). Ultimately a book of openings would be a laudable goal, but I think at this point a few tables is a good enough start.
I'm sure that accounting for individual differences in playstyle could impact these numbers to a greater or lesser extent, but I am interested in broad trends over large gaming populations if possible, where individual styles should ultimately wash out. The database of logged games on this site is probably as close to a "large population" as we are likely to get, given the relatively small number of Tafl players in the world.
A small test tournament of 5 players, is not enough to generate probabilities, but can be a part of testing established win probabilities and can be a way to assess the impact of previously unexplored lines that follow a given opening.
Obviously, the mathematical complexity of Tafl games is lower than that of chess based simply on piece differentiation and board symmetry, but the game is still very complex and establishing a solid theory of openings is critical to an overall development of hnefatafl theory.